TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Testing March low that should not be punctured

A week ago I wrote: "The edge for upside right now is good in the medium term but in the shorter term there is almost as much chance of downside as upside in the coming week."

This past week started with a new 25-day high but since then it has been choppy and choppy with every other day-like movements. The price is currently testing the 50-day moving average. In total, Bitcoin fell by 7 per cent in the past week, which means that this year's increase is now written at 52 per cent. For the second week in a row, a doji formed in the weekly chart.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since the end of October. The trend phase indicator is noted since 21 October in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies. If the trend phase indicator turns down from the high level and notes new lower highs and lows, the risk is high that a significant top is about to form.

The volume balance has now fallen down and is neutral.

MACD executed a negative cross on 15 March and it is still in play, we have seen two negative trampolines executed in the last two weeks. Now the zero zone is being tested which if punctured is a negative puzzle piece.

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Summary: Bitcoin continues inside the constraints of the March high and low. Over the weekend, the triangle was punctured and price is now testing the March low which if punctured without a quick retracement targets the 50,000 level. Given the trend and volume balance, there is more to suggest that the support will hold and the subsequent expansion will be northwards than that 60000 and the March low will give way. Historically, April has been a good month for Bitcoin, and given the impending halving, there is a good chance that this will be the case again this year. In the three previous halves, the following year has seen impressive gains. The odds of a rise right now are good in the medium term, but in the shorter term there is almost as much chance of a fall as a rise in the coming week. Although deeper recoils than down towards 60000 can be worth buying, deep retracements place greater demands on the formation that eliminates the downside. Until proven otherwise, my main track is that Bitcoin is loading up to once again break out northwards.

Resistance: 64500/67700/71790/72000/73700/78000
Support: 60870 / 60000 / 57000

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 36-.

Ethereum: Oversold in a rising long-term trend

A week ago I wrote: "What I want to see now is that we are treated to a breakout up above the triangle's descending resistance line, setting our sights on the March top at 4000. If instead it turns out that price falls down and punctures the 3200 level, the hope is that the MA-100 at 3000 is respected lest the master call the dog home."

The past week began with an attempted breakout from the triangle formation, but this was to become false on Tuesday. Instead, the week ended with a puncture of the rising support line in the triangle and a test of the March low. In total, Ethereum fell 8.3 per cent last week, which means that the year's rise has now been reduced to 35 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the fourth week in a row that developed into a dojo-like candle with a small box.

The long-term trend that I use the 200-day average to identify is rising. The trend phase indicator is noted since early November in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies and has now fallen down from the extremely high level that prevailed in February and March.

The volume balance is negative since 30 March.

The MACD left on 15 March a relatively high negative cross which is still in play. The zero zone is now being tested and looks to be about to be punctured.

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Summary: The price this week punctured the triangle formation that I wrote about a week ago. Now the area around 2850 is being tested by where the MA-100 is also found. The final decline last week has now caused the short-term momentum indicators to be heavily biased to the downside, which suggests that there is a good chance of a bounce from the current level. On the occasions that the price has fallen as much or more than the last week, above the MA-200, it has led to gains in one week's time in 64% of these. The median of these has then been an impressive +12%. What I don't want to see is the MA-100 being punctured but quickly retaken as it sets the sights down towards the 200-day average. A first positive piece of the puzzle would be a crossing of the standard line at 3290 but it is only when we see a new higher top followed by a new higher bottom that we see signs that the buyers are back.

Resistance: 3000 / 3175 / 3220 / 3340 / 3618 / 3730 / 4095
Support: 3000/2865/2720-2680/2160

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 28-.

Binance BNB: Punctured the triangle and now challenges the 500 level

A week ago I wrote: "Whichever of the levels of the triangle is crossed or punctured sets its sights on either the March high at 650 or the 500 level where MA-50 meets up."

BNB started the week with a couple of small candles before the price broke above the triangle I wrote about a week ago on Wednesday. However, the rise slowed down quickly and the top at 645 currently looks like it needs to be softened before it is ready to be crossed. In total, Binance rose by 3.3 per cent in the past week, which means that this year's rise now stands at 91 per cent. In the weekly chart, the last two weeks have resulted in two small candles.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending and the G-forces sorted for ascending. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to act with positive trend following strategies but is noted since early March at an extremely high level and downward reversals that punctuate confirmation levels not infrequently lead to significant tops.

The volume balance has been positive since mid-October but is now showing signs of turning negative.

The MACD made a negative cross on 19 March that is still in play although the pace of decline has slowed and a buy signal seems to be approaching, which could become a negative trampoline.

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Summary: Although the price managed to break out of the triangle, it is anything but confident buyers who are holding the baton. Since price broke above the standard line in early February, each test of the level has quickly led to buyers taking control. In the last two weeks, the standard line has been tested 9 times but respected until now. The sharp puncture of the level has now sent the price down to just the 50-day average and the 500 level. If it turns out that 500 gives way without being quickly retaken, the risk of a decline towards MA-200 increases significantly, but that is not my main track so far. Based on the trend and the volume balance, there are more indications that the next trend leg will be positive than the opposite. If several of the major coins turn down, BNB will probably also be dragged down, but so far this is not the most likely scenario.

Resistance: 540 / 590-610 / 620 / 642 / 675 / 690-710
Support: 510-490 / 470 / 450 / 410-390

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 50-.

Solana: Testing fib 62% and MA-100

A week ago I wrote: "If it turns out that the 160 level is punctured instead of the price rising above the descending resistance line, the risk of challenging selling pressure is high".

The past week began with a failed attempt to break out above the 20-day moving average. On Friday, the 50-day moving average was also punctured, which is one of the negative pieces of the puzzle I have written about recently. In total, Solana fell by 20 per cent last week, which means that this year's rise has now been reduced to 40 per cent. In the weekly graph, it was the second week in a row with a clear negative weekly candle.

The long-term trend, which I use the 200-day average to identify, has been rising since early November. The trend phase indicator is noted since 12 October in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies. However, the trend phase indicator is at such a high level that reversals down from these often lead to significant peaks, and now we see signs of this.

The volume balance is positive since 10 February.

The MACD made a negative cross on 23 March and it is still in play but now the zero zone is being challenged as a support while several of the short-term momentum indicators are stretched on the downside.

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Summary: Solana has now recoiled down to the fib 62% level of the rise that began in January. Now I want to see the buyers come back and establish Solana above the standard line at 162 so as not to risk new lower highs. Going back to 2021, I find only one similar occasion in positive trend that %b been equally oversold. On the 32 occasions that price has fallen by the same amount or more in the last month, half of them have seen ups and downs in the coming week. If support at 120 gives way, the focus will be on the 200-day moving average, which we find at 93 for the start of the week, but for now the rising support line is intact.

Resistance: 145.00 / 154.20 / 168.00 / 175.30
Support: 118.70 / 110.00 / 100.00

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 32-.

XRP: The barrier broke and now the August bottom is being tested

A week ago I wrote: "As long as the limits of the contraction are intact, we should be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading as support and resistance levels in this area are challenged."

The past week started off choppy but ended with a decline to August lows and autumn lows that are now being challenged. In total, XRP fell 18 per cent this past week, extending this year's decline to 21 per cent.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is largely devoid of slope. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is neutral but looks to turn negative as the week begins.

MACD left a negative cross on 16 March and at the end of the week punctured the zero zone, which is another negative piece of the puzzle.

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Summary: XRP has now fallen down to the support and accumulation area that caused XRP to pull up towards the yearly high at the 0.72 level last autumn. The price is extremely oversold and if the textbook is followed from now on, most of the indications are that the price will bounce up from the current level. If the bounce fails or does not even manage to take back 50% of the last week's decline, the risk is great that even the August bottom does not hold and then there is a risk of a decline towards the next level found around 0.25-0.20. I now want to see signs that the buyers are not counted out, but it is important not to gamble but wait for signs of buying interest to appear.

Resistance: 0.52 / 0.54 / 0.60 / 0.64
Support: 0.43 / 0.35 / 0.28 / 0.20

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 33-.

Cardano: The Master called the dog home

A week ago I wrote: "Now I would like to see the last week's low at 0.56 respected and the price take out the short and medium term averages. If 0.56 is punctured without a quick retracement, the focus is on 0.50-0.48 where the 200-day average meets up."

The past week began with the 100-day average being passed, but when the MA-20 was tested on Tuesday, Cardano turned down, just like the times we have seen similar tests for almost a month. On Friday, the price fell sharply and reached the 200-day moving average. Cardano fell by a total of 11.1 per cent last week, which means that this year's decline was extended to 14.1 per cent. In the weekly chart, it was the fifth week in a row that closed in the lower part of the weekly candle. The last time we saw this was around the end of August/September.

The long-term trend that I use the 200-day average to identify is still upward. I wrote in early March that a decline in the trend phase indicator from the extremely high level risked building a significant top if the indicator turned down below the confirmation level, which it did. The trend phase indicator fell this week into the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance, which has been positive since 17 February, turned negative this week.

The MACD made a negative cross on 14 March and made a negative trampoline on Thursday.

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Summary: Since the trend phase indicator turned down from the extremely high level in mid-March and the standard line was punctured, every attempt to break up above the 20-day average has failed. Last week the support at 0.56 was also punctured and the master called back the dog (MA-200). In recent days, the rising 200-day moving average has also been punctured and the price has reached the floor of the short-term descending channel. Going back in time, I find only two occasions when the price has fallen as much in one week and above the MA-200. On the 10 occasions when the %b has been down as low or lower, the price has risen in the coming week on 6 occasions. The conclusion is that the price is balancing at an important level and that it is an extremely oversold and rare situation, based on the years we have available. Now, I do not want to see the price puncture the past week's low at 0.47, but in that case quickly regain the level, which risks triggering a decline towards the accumulation zone from November at 0.40-0.34. What I would like to see, however, is for the price to continue to respect the MA-200 and break above last week's high at 0.62, setting the sights on firstly 0.68 and then the yearly high at 0.80. The buyers should in the best of worlds show up now, if they don't the target is set towards the October low.

Resistance: 0.48 / 0.54 / 0.62 / 0.66-0.68
Support: 0.41 / 0.35 / 0.30 / 0.24

The cycle indicator is noted for the week around 29-.

Avalanche: Testing the support at MA-200

A week ago I wrote: "Ideally, I would like to see the buyers come back and reclaim the short and medium-term averages within a few days because otherwise the pendulum will start to swing to the negative and the master will probably call the dog home."

The past week started with a doji between the 50- and 20-day averages but already on Tuesday the MA-50 was punctured and on Friday the MA-100. Although the MA-200 is rising and the price is still listed above the primary trend, we have seen some change of scene. In total, the Avalanche fell by 21 per cent last week, which means that this year's rise has now been wiped out. In the weekly chart, it was the fourth week in a row that closed in the lower part of the weekly candle, which we last saw at the end of January. Now it will be interesting to see if the price also turns up this time in the coming week.

The long-term trend, which I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to identify, has been rising since early December. The trend phase indicator is noted since early November in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies but has now turned down from the extremely high level prevailing in mid-March warning that we may have seen a significant top on 18 March.

The MACD left a high negative cross on 24 March and it is still in play. This week, the zero zone was also punctured, which is a negative piece of the puzzle and indicates that further declines may be needed before buyers take over the baton again.

The volume balance has been positive since 3 March but now challenges the three-month average for the first time since the end of February.

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Summary: Since the peak in mid-March, the price has punctured both the short- and medium-term averages. It is now testing the support around 30 of which has been respected since the beginning of the year. So far, the price is noted above the 200-day moving average, which is positive. In addition, the %b shows a tendency to a positive divergence and on the three occasions (can't find more since 2021) that are similar to what we are seeing now, the price has been higher a week later. Even though the risk is high that the price needs to go down to MA-200, there is starting to be a good edge for at least a bounce. If it turns out that the price takes out the last week's high at 50.8 without being quickly followed by a new lower low, I interpret it as a new positive trend leg being initiated. What I don't want to see is that the next top will be lower than 50.8 and that Friday's low at 35.00 will give way as it risks increasing the selling pressure further.

Resistance: 36.00 / 40.00 / 43.90 / 48.60 / 50.80
Support: 32.00 / 29.00 / 27.20

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 22-.

Polkadot: Oversold around the canal floor

A week ago I wrote: "If the price turns down before the MA-50 is reclaimed, there is a good chance that the previous week's low around 8 will give way and then the MA-200 will most likely call the price home."

The past week started with a test of the 20-day moving average and once again the buyers failed to regain the level. The price turned down on Tuesday after confirming a bearish harami. As expected, the puncture of the support level at 8.00 triggered the master to call the dog home. For the past two days, the price has been busy testing the strength of the 200-day moving average. In total, Polkadot fell by 21 per cent in the past week, which means that this year's decline is now written at 22 per cent. In the weekly chart, a bearish below the stomach was formed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is upward. The trend phase indicator on 22 February moved up into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend-following strategies. However, since 14 March, the trend phase indicator has been warning that a significant one may be in the making, which is exactly what we got.

The volume balance has turned down and is negative since the beginning of April.

The MACD made a relatively high negative cross on 16 March and this week noted a negative trampoline below zero.

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Summary: Since the top at the 12 level in mid-March where the trend phase indicator warned that a significant top could be forming, we have now confirmed that this is exactly what happened. The master called the dog home this week but this weekend this level was also punctured. The price is now heavily oversold around the floor of the sharply falling short trend channel at the 6 level. On the 47 similar occasions I find since 2021, the price has been higher a week later on 36 of these (77%), but equally oversold situations if/when the price is noted below MA-200 have led to more declines than increases in the coming week. Now I want to see the price resume the 200-day average and then take out the ceiling of the falling channel and not then make a new lower bottom. On the other hand, if 5.80 is punctured and not quickly reclaimed, the focus is on the 5 level and the November low.

Resistance: 6.90-7.10 / 7.50 / 7.90-8.10 / 9.10 / 9.40
Support: 6.55 / 6.10-5.90 / 4.80 / 4.10-3.90

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 27.

Uniswap: Testing the accumulation zone from last winter

A week ago I wrote: "If the 10 level gives way without being quickly retaken, the MA-100 at the 9 level will be found, and if it too is punctured, the master will probably call the dog home, which means a decline to the area around 7."

The past week began with a retest of the 20-day moving average, which again was not taken out. At the end of the week, both the 10-level and the MA-100 gave way, leading the owner to call the dog home, as expected. The strength of the 200-day average is now being tested at 7.3. In total, Uniswap fell by 37 per cent this past week, which means that this year's rise has now been eliminated and since the start of the year, a decline of 2.2 per cent is now recorded instead. We have to go back two years in time to find a similarly steep week of decline.

The long-term trend that I use the 200-day average to identify has been rising since mid-December but is now being challenged by price. The trend phase indicator was at a level in early March that, when followed by punctuated confirmation levels, risks producing a significant top, which is exactly what we have seen now. After the last month's decline, the indicator has reached the area where we should instead be prepared for sharp turns and choppy trading.

The volume balance is now neutral and about to turn negative.

MACD left a negative cross on 14 March and last week the zero zone was also punctured, which is a negative piece of the puzzle.

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Summary: A saying that may be appropriate for Uniswap is that it is the escalator up but the lift down. The entire year's rise is now erased and the price is now challenging the accumulation zone that preceded the rise in March. Uniswap is heavily oversold and the odds are in favour of a reversal upwards from this level. Now I want to see the price rise above the 200-day moving average and manage to take out the latest "short-term top" at 11.80 without it being followed by a new lower bottom. If instead it turns out that 5.5 is punctured, the target is set down towards the October low which we find just below the 4 level.

Resistance: 7.40 / 7.90-8.10 / 8.80-9.20
Support: 5.90-5.40 / 4.10-3.90 / 3.70

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 13+.