TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

Bitcoin: Will we again see a post-halving effect?

A week ago I wrote: "Price is now in the process of testing the March low which if punctured without a quick retracement will target 50000. Given the trend and volume balance, there is more evidence that support will hold and the subsequent expansion will be northwards than that 60000 and the March low will give way."

The past week started with a decline but Bitcoin followed the textbook and respected the 60000 level but the price still oscillates between the March low and the standard line. In total, Bitcoin rose by 1.6 per cent this past week, bringing the year's gain to 54 per cent. In the weekly graph, a doji developed with relatively clear tails on both the upper and lower sides.

On Friday night, the remuneration for mining new Bitcoins was halved, which was the fourth time. There is a fairly high risk that the price immediately after the halving will be put under some pressure, but in the previous halving, the year that followed has been extremely positive. In previous halves, it has taken about two months for the price to pick up again. Provided that demand does not fall, the reduced supply of coins will be a positive price factor.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since the end of October. The trend phase indicator is noted since 21 October in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies. If the trend phase indicator continues down and punctures the 2 level, the risk is high that we will be offered a clear significant top.

The volume balance is neutral but seems to be on its way to regain the mean and become positive.

The MACD made a negative cross on 15 March and it is still in play, we have seen two negative trampolines in the last three weeks. The indicator is now noted just below the zero zone, which if reclaimed will be a positive piece of the puzzle.

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Summary: Bitcoin is quoted in a range with a slightly negative undertone and to that should be added that the risk is high for an initial decline immediately after the halving. Technically, I now want to see that the standard line at 66175 is resumed without being quickly punctured. If it instead turns out that the March low at 59200 is punctured, it is relatively free down to the accumulation zone from February between 52800-50350. If the price starts a short decline after the halving, there is a good chance that the buyers will come back and start a post halving effect again. Until proven otherwise, my main view is that Bitcoin is gearing up for another breakout to the north but that it may take one or two more turns before the journey we have been waiting for begins.

Resistance: 66175/67700/71790/72000/73700/78000
Support: 60700-59200 / 57000 / 52900

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 65+.

Ethereum: Hesitating on the 100-day average

A week ago I wrote: "If price falls down and punctures the 3200 level, the hope is that the MA-100 at 3000 is respected lest the master call the dog home."

The past week began with the price puncturing the 3200 level and has since been testing the area around the 100-day average and the psychologically important 3000 level. In total, Ethereum fell by 5.3 per cent this past week (Saturday->Saturday), which means that this year's rise has now been reduced to 34 per cent. In the weekly graph, an inside bar was formed that has the appearance of a long legged doji.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to identify is rising. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a reversal down from the extremely high level risked leading to a significant top, now we know that this was the case. The indicator fell this week into the zone where we are asked to be prepared for sharp turns and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since 30 March.

The MACD left on 15 March a relatively high negative cross which is still in play. Last week, the zero zone was punctured while a negative trampoline was executed. However, we now see signs that the negative momentum may be waning and the question is whether we will be offered a positive cross or a new negative trampoline.

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Summary: Price is now testing the strength of the 100-day moving average around the psychologically important 3000 level. If last week's low at 2850 is punctured without being quickly retaken, the focus will be on the 200-day moving average, which is currently trading within the constraints of the January accumulation zone. There is now some negative undertone in the short to medium term. Now I want to see price take out the standard line at 3290 and that the level is not immediately punctured, in order for me to become positive again in the short term.

Resistance: 3140 / 3290 / 3340 / 3618 / 3730 / 4095
Support: 3000 / 2865-2850 / 2720-2680 / 2160

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 28-.

Binance BNB: Still trapped in the March range

A week ago I wrote: "The puncture of the standard line caused the price to fall down to the 50-day average that I mentioned last week."

The past week continued as the week before, namely testing the strength of the 50-day average. In total, the BNB fell by 5.8 per cent (Saturday->Saturday) this past week, which means that this year's rise has now been reduced to 80 per cent. In the weekly graph, an inside bar was formed with the appearance of a doji.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending and the G-forces are sorted for ascending. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are asked to act with positive trend following strategies but is noted since early March at an extremely high level and reversals downwards from these high levels, which punctuate confirmation levels not infrequently lead to significant tops.

The volume balance has been positive since mid-October but is now showing signs of turning negative.

The MACD made a negative cross on 19 March that is still in play even though the pace of decline has slowed and the indicator is now testing the support level of the zero zone.

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Summary: The price is still trapped by the range marked by the March high and low at 645 and 496. Any one of these levels being taken out or punctured is likely to be followed by a clear move in that direction. Right now, there is a high risk of choppy movements with sharp reversals when any of the trading range's constraints are tested. If it turns out that the March low at 496 gives way without being quickly retrieved, it initially sets the sights on 425. A first positive piece of the puzzle I will interpret a crossing of the standard line at 571, provided that the level does not quickly fall and then a crossing of 645 which sets the sights on the 700 level.

Resistance: 573 / 590-610 / 620 / 642 / 675 / 690-710
Support: 540 / 510-490 / 470 / 450 / 410-390

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 49+.

Solana: Taking off and challenging the short-term channel ceiling

A week ago I wrote: "If support at 120 gives way, the focus will be on the 200-day average. So far, the rising support line is intact."

The past week continued as the week before ended and until Saturday, the price has tested the strength of the 100-day moving average every day. Solana rose 9 per cent last week after a strong recovery at the weekend, bringing the year-to-date gain to 49 per cent. In the weekly graph, an inside bar with a doji appearance was formed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator is noted since 12 October in the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies. From mid-March, the trend phase indicator was at a level that warned that a significant top was coming. After a decline of 40 per cent from the peak in March to the low point in April, we can conclude that this was the case.

The volume balance is positive since 10 February.

MACD made a negative cross on 23 March and it is still in play. However, we now see signs that the downward momentum is slowing down and a buy signal is not far away.

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Summary: After testing the strength of MA-100 and the rising support line all week, Solana made its way to the ceiling of the short-term falling channel this weekend. If the channel ceiling is crossed, we find the next resistance around the standard line which is noted at 163. An establishment above the standard line, provided that it is not immediately punctured, means that I become positive again in the short term. On the other hand, if the price fails to regain the standard line and instead falls down and punctures the April low at 122, the target is the 200-day moving average. The scales seem to be tipping back in the positive direction and as long as the price stays above 145, there is more chance of a rise to the March high than a fall to the January low.

Resistance: 160.00 / 163.10 / 186.00
Support: 148.70 / 138.20 / 126.70 / 121.90

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 63+.

XRP: So far, the August bottom is being respected

A week ago I wrote: "Price is extremely oversold and if the textbook is followed from now on, most of the evidence points to price bouncing up from the current level."

The past week began by showing respect for the support area but the price is still struggling to try and take out the constraints from last Saturday's long red candle. In total, XRP rose 10 per cent in the past week, bringing this year's decline to 14 per cent. The weekly stack developed into a harami where the inside stack managed to close above the marubo line of the long red weekly candle that preceded last week.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is largely devoid of slope. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance is negative since 13 April.

The MACD left a negative cross on 16 March but is now about to be eliminated by a positive cross that seems to be approaching.

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Summary: XRP fell about a week ago to the support and accumulation area that has been in play since late summer. When the price has been oversold at this level, buyers have ventured in but have given up at one of the resistance areas within the trading range. In recent days, we see some signs that buyers have come back to life and are now approaching the standard line at 0.54 and I see a crossing as a positive piece of the puzzle. If the uptrend turns down before MA-200 is retaken, we will most likely see a new test of the support zone soon. As long as none of the support or resistance levels for the consolidation are taken out or punctured, we should be prepared for sharp turns and choppy trading.

Resistance: 0.54-0.56 / 0.60 / 0.64
Support: 0.52 / 0.47 / 0.43 / 0.35

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 70+.

Cardano: Are we seeing a pause or a bottom?

A week ago I wrote: "I don't want to see the price puncture the previous week's low at 0.47, but rather quickly regain the level, which risks triggering a decline towards the November accumulation zone at the 0.40 level."

There was a puncture of 0.47 at the beginning of the past week, which already triggered a decline to 0.41 over the weekend. In total, Cardano fell by 4.0 per cent last week (Saturday->Saturday), which means that this year's decline is now written at 19 per cent. In the weekly chart, a tendency towards a bullish harami was formed, which however failed to recapture the centre of the previous weekly candle.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is still upward even though the price is now noted below the level. I wrote in early March that a decline in the trend phase indicator from the extremely high level risked building a significant top if the indicator turned down below the confirmation level, which is exactly what happened. The trend phase indicator fell this week into the zone where we are warned that further downside is to be expected.

The volume balance turns down and became negative on 12 April.

MACD made a negative cross on 14 March and a negative trampoline on 12 April. Now it will be interesting to see if the waning negative momentum leads to a positive cross or a new reinforcement of the decline.

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Summary: After a sharp decline of 50% from the peak on 14 March, we now see signs that the momentum for decline is slowing down. However, it is easy to fool oneself into believing that the price will turn up, it can still develop a negative trampoline like two weeks ago and then the risk is great that the support at 0.40 is also smoked, indicating a decline towards 0.34 in the first place. If this level does not hold either, Cardano will probably be pulled down towards the October low, but I will return to this if this is the case. For now, I want to see the MA-200 crossed and not immediately and then the channel ceiling where we also find the standard line for the week. As long as the price does not manage to break up through the short-term falling channel ceiling, there is a greater risk of down than up, but this scenario reverses if the channel ceiling is crossed.

Resistance: 0.50 / 0.54 / 0.62 / 0.66-0.68
Support: 0.47 / 0.42-0.41 / 0.35 / 0.30 / 0.24

The cycle indicator is noted for the week around 70+.

Avalanche: Continuing to test support at MA-200

A week ago I wrote: "So far the price is listed above the 200-day moving average which is positive. Although the risk is high that the price needs to go down to MA-200, there is a good edge for at least a short-term upside."

Already during last weekend the master called the dog home and since then the price has been down almost every day testing the 200-day average. In total, Avalanche fell by 10 per cent this past week (Saturday->Saturday), which means that this year's decline is now written at 8.1 per cent. In the weekly chart, a doji was formed around the four-year line.

The long-term trend, which I prefer to use the slope of the 200-day average to identify, has been rising since early December. The Trend Phase Indicator warned in early March that a significant top could be coming and now we know that it did. Last week, the indicator fell into the zone where we are advised to be prepared for sharp turns and choppy trading.

MACD left a high negative cross on 24 March and it is still in play. Now the indicator is noted in the negative part and even if we see signs of slowing momentum, there is a risk of a new negative trampoline.

The volume balance is negative since 13 April.

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Summary: Price is now weighing on the 200-day moving average and ideally I would like to see the level not punctured, but quickly retaken. A weak close below the 30 level sets the sights on the accumulation zone at the end of November around 25-19 and if that level also gives way, the next plateau is down to the October low, but I will return to that if it becomes relevant. For now, I would like to see the price close strongly above the previous day's high to see signs that buyers are starting to regain confidence and hence it is important to restore the positive look that the standard line at 44.35 is recaptured without being quickly punctured.

Resistance: 38.65 / 40.00 / 43.90 / 48.60 / 50.80
Support: 32.75 / 30.00 / 29.40 / 27.20

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 58+.

Polkadot: Working on softening the MA-200

A week ago I wrote: "The master called the dog home this week but this weekend the MA-200 was punctured. Now I want to see price retake the 200-day average and then take out the channel ceiling of the falling channel and not then effect a new lower bottom."

The price punctured the 200-day moving average a week ago and has tested the level every day since, but buyers have not yet had the confidence to reclaim the level. In total, Polkadot fell by 6.4 per cent this past week (Saturday->Saturday), which means that this year's decline has now been extended to 17.4 per cent. In the weekly graph, an inside bar was formed that was also a doji.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is upwards but the price is noted below the level. The trend phase indicator warned in early March that a significant top could be coming if the indicator turned down and punctured confirmation levels from the extremely high level. Now we know that this was the case and the indicator has continued down to be listed in the zone where we are asked to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance has turned down and is negative since the beginning of April.

MACD made a relatively high negative cross on 16 March and punctured the zero zone about a week ago. Now it will be interesting to see if the waning negative momentum leads to a positive cross or a new negative trampoline.

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Summary: After a decline of over 50% since the peak in mid-March, the selling pressure seems to have subsided, at least temporarily. Initially, I would like to see the price take out the MA-200 and 7.35, but for me to become short-term positive again, the price needs to establish itself above the standard line, which is noted at 8.05 at the start of the week. If it turns out that last week's low at 5.80 is punctured without being quickly retrieved, the aim is initially towards 4.80, which is the minimum level of the accumulation zone from November. There is a good chance of at least a bounce from the current level, but if this is not the case, it is an indication of a weaker undertone than at least I thought.

Resistance: 6.90-7.10 / 7.50 / 7.90-8.10 / 9.10 / 9.40
Support: 6.30 / 6.10-5.80 / 4.80 / 4.10-3.90

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 62+.

Uniswap: Showing some signs of life by MA-200 icebreak

A week ago I wrote: "Now I would like to see the price move up above the 200-day moving average and manage to take out the recent "short-term top" at 11.80."

The past week, up until Saturday, has been trying to break up through the 200-day and on Saturday we saw signs that it is about to happen. Uniswap rose Saturday-Saturday this past week by 14 per cent, which means that the decline from the beginning of the year has now turned into an increase of 9 per cent. In the weekly chart, an inside bar developed with the appearance of a positive reversal.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point to has been rising since mid-December but is now being tested and appears to be retracing. In early March, the trend phase indicator was at a level that, when followed by punctuated confirmation levels, risks producing a significant top, just what we have seen now. After last month's decline, the indicator has reached the area where we are told to be prepared for further decline.

The volume balance is negative since 16 April.

The MACD left a negative cross on 14 March which is now being eliminated by a positive cross.

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Summary: As I wrote two weeks ago, there was a high risk of a decline towards the 6 level and the home port of the recent rise of fib 62% at 10 was punctured. We can conclude that reality followed the textbook and now it will be exciting to see if what is now unfolding is the start of the next positive trend leg or just a pause formation in the decline. To be positive in the short term, I want to see both the standard line and the falling resistance line around 9 crossed without being quickly punctured to be positive in the short term. Should the next top be lower and/or the low from the beginning of the year at 6 be punctured, the target is the October low around the 4 level.

Resistance: 7.90-8.10 / 8.80-9.20
Support: 7.50 / 6.60 / 5.90-5.40

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 69+.