TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

The following content is an automatic translation of Tobbe Rosén’s technical analysis, originally written in Swedish.

During the summer weeks, there will be analyses on slightly fewer underlying assets than usual. On 17 August, the technical analysis and Cryptonight will be back.

Bitcoin: Aiming for the ATH marker

A week ago I wrote: ‘If the standard line is crossed without being quickly punctured, it will be the first time since 15 May that we have seen this happen. Provided the standard line and 60,000 do not give way, there is now a good chance that the next positive trend leg is about to begin.’

This past week started with the standard line being retaken and the breakout holding. This boosted the confidence of buyers who have maintained the initiative since then. In total, Bitcoin rose by 13 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 59 per cent. In the weekly chart, bullish separating line developed which managed to take out the last 6 weekly closes, in just one week.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is ascending since late October and a week ago we were treated to an icebreak of the MA-200 and in recent days the MA-100 and MA-50 have also been crossed.

The volume balance is negative since 14 June but at least shows signs of strengthening.

The MACD left a positive cross on 13 July and rose above the zero zone last week, which is another positive piece of the puzzle.

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Summary: Bitcoin rose above the 60,000 level last week, which as expected triggered buying pressure. The weekly candle was the strongest since early March. In the previous halvings, there has been flat trading for about three months and in this case that means until the second half of July. At least for the time being, it looks like the April halving will also follow the pattern of the previous three halvings. At the end of the week, the MA-50 and MA-100 were also crossed, which suggests that the target is set up towards the ATH level at 73,800. If Bitcoin passes the ATH level, we will find the next tough resistance area at 80,000 and then 85,000. Ideally, I would now like to see the 50-day average respected when it is retested but above all that the standard line at 60,000 does not give way, which I will return to in that case, but that is not my main track.

Resistance: 70000 / 71800 / 72780 / 73835
Support: 66200 / 63220 / 61325

The cycle indicator is noted for the day around 89+.

Ethereum: Breaking up above the falling short-term trend line

A week ago I wrote: ‘Assuming the MA-200 holds, I would like to see the ceiling of the short-term descending channel crossed, implying a breakout up above 3300. So far, I interpret the price movement in Ethereum as an impulse pattern that will lead to a price expansion to the north.’

The past week started with a crossing of the standard line and since then the MA-100 and MA-50 have also been retaken, although not entirely convincing candles. In total, Ethereum rose by 10 per cent this past week, which means that the year's rise is now written at 54 per cent. In the weekly chart, a strong Candle developed and picked up where the week before closed.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising and this past week started with a MA-200 icebreak. The trend phase indicator is noted in the zone where we are told to be prepared for sharp reversals and choppy trading.

The volume balance has been negative since 25 June, but since the beginning of July it has been rising and is now approaching the average.

The MACD left a positive cross on 14 July and has now risen above zero.

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Summary: Ethereum started the week by crossing up through the 200-day moving average and then crossed the falling short-term trend line, which I have been talking about for a few weeks. Provided that the price does not puncture the standard line at 3200 where the MA-200 also meets up, conditions are now good for the target to be set up towards the 4000 level. A close above 3660 will probably be a trigger that strengthens the buyers further. If Ethereum instead turns down at 3660 or before, it is important that the standard line is respected in order not to avoid a more than desired increasing selling pressure. My main prediction until proven otherwise is that Ethereum has started a new positive trend leg.

Resistance: 3565 / 3890-3910 / 3975 / 4090
Support: 3365 / 3235 / 3170 / 3050 / 2810

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 84+.

Solana: Overbought on the breakout above the falling trend line

A week ago I wrote: ‘The buyers now seem to be coming back at ever higher levels and there is increasing evidence that the price is retaking the MA-200 and gaining momentum up towards the falling resistance line that meets up around the 170 level. As long as the price stays above the MA-200, I interpret this to mean that the target is set up towards the 200-dollar level.’

The past week started with a crossing up through the 200-day moving average, and the weekend also saw a crossing of the falling resistance line that has connected the increasingly lower highs since mid-March. In total, Solana rose by 22 per cent in the past week, which means that this year's rise is now estimated at 70 per cent. In the weekly chart, the candle became the strongest since mid-March.

The long trend that I use the 200-day average to point out is rising since early November. The trend phase indicator looks to be heading up into the zone where we are advised to act with positive trend following strategies.

The volume balance is positive since 9 July.

The MACD left on 27 June a positive cross that is still in play and now the zero zone has also been passed.

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Summary: After a 45% rise since the low on 5 July, the risk of a counter-reaction has increased. The stochastic is at its highest level since 15 March, which means that a negative candlestick formation that leads to a break of the resistance line that has been crossed risks triggering challenging selling pressure. Given the positive volume balance and the increasingly positive trend phase appearance, most indications are that a correction will be short-term. However, so far the recent top at 189 from 21 May has not been taken out and a new lower top around the current level will of course be a negative piece of the puzzle. However, as long as the buyers come back and soak up the selling pressure at increasingly higher levels, there is more to suggest that we will be offered an upturn, which in that case is what we have seen in the autumn of both 2021 and 2023.

Resistance: 188.40 / 200.00 / 204.25 / 209.90
Support: 169.30 / 163.80 / 152.60 / 148.50

The cycle indicator is noted ahead of the day around 90+.